Seasonal Forecasts
Forecasters See Milder Winter Ahead
Top government climatologists are predicting that the winter ahead will not be as severe as last winter. Still, their long-range forecast calls for colder temperatures and heavier precipitation than the United States has averaged during the past 30 years.
Horses nuzzle near Fenton, Mo., following a Feb. 1, 2011 ice storm. Government climatologists are calling for a slightly milder winter ahead. (Photo By: The Associated Press/St. Louis Post Dispatch, J.B. Forbes)
“We have seen much more typical winters over the past five or 10 years,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director of the National Climate Prediction Center. “We do have a La Niña effect right now that provides a substantial underpinning for the forecast.”
Halpert said atmospheric conditions over the Pacific are likely to contribute to below average temperatures in the northern tier states from Michigan westward. Winter temperatures across the South are expected to be warmer than average, but below average in Alaska during the October-through-March forecast period.
“We’re expecting the same types of precipitation patterns we saw last winter,” said Halpert. “We see a favorable tilt towards below average precipitation across much of the South. We see a tilt toward above average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and the Ohio Valley.”
Halpert delivered the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal predictions during the annual conference of the National Association of State Energy Officers in Washington, D.C.
He cautioned that the weather conditions influencing his forecast are subject to change, based upon North Atlantic Oscillation, an erratic atmospheric anomaly which can cause major shifts in weather trends.
“These seasonal forecasts are really for risk management purposes,” said Halpert. “There are no guarantees.”
Based upon NOAA’s seasonal forecast, the nation could see 6 percent to 7 percent fewer heating degree days, Halpert said. But he cautioned that some of the weather conditions that caused problems for co-op-served areas from the High Plains to the Southwest may continue or return.
“The strong drought in Texas and Oklahoma is persistent, and with patterns favoring below average precipitation, you are likely to see that drought continue through the winter,” Halpert said.
“Areas in the north already have saturated ground conditions,” said Halpert. “If they see above normal snowfall, certainly we’re going to be dealing with flooding come next spring.”
Tags: Flooding, Seasonal Forecasts