Seasonal Forecasts
Active Hurricane Season Forecast
Federal meteorologists are predicting an above-normal level of storm activity in the Atlantic basin for the upcoming hurricane season.
A satellite image of Hurricane Katrina taken Aug. 28, 2005. NOAA is forecasting between 12 and 18 named storms in the Atlantic Basin in 2011. (Photo By: NOAA)
The seasonal outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting 12 to 18 named storms, with as many as six major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator.
Last year, there were 19 named storms in the Atlantic, with 12 developing into hurricanes and five upgraded to major status. An average Atlantic hurricane season includes 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“We can’t count on luck to get us through this season,” said Lubchenco. “We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
The Atlantic region typically faces one to two inland storms and two to three coastal storms during the annual season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
Government meteorologists considered a range of factors, including an era of high activity that began in 1995, based on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. The panel cited warmer-than-average temperatures in the Atlantic where storms develop and reduced wind shear from a dissipating La Niña effect in the Pacific Ocean as contributing factors.
“Seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “We could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995.”
May 22 through May 28 has been designated National Hurricane Preparedness Week. The Federal Emergency Management Agency and other government agencies are urging residents and business interests in areas susceptible to hurricane damage to prepare for seasonal threats.
“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes.”
Tags: Federal Emergency Management Agency, Hurricanes, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Seasonal Forecasts