Transmission & Distribution

For Grid Planning, Uncertainty Looms

By Todd H. Cunningham | ECT Staff Writer Published: February 15th, 2012

The public policy considerations that underlie long-term transmission planning are subject to change, “so we have to be careful” in making assumptions, according to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Philip Moeller.

Old Dominion Electric Cooperative’s Ed Tatum suggests that despite time constraints, transmission planners should take a more proactive approach. (Photo By: Todd H. Cunningham)

Old Dominion Electric Cooperative’s Ed Tatum suggests that despite time constraints, transmission planners should take a more proactive approach. (Photo By: Todd H. Cunningham)

The commissioner spoke at the National Electricity Forum, an annual event sponsored by the Department of Energy and the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners.

“I’m all for long-range planning; it’s the way the utility industry works,” Moeller emphasized at a Feb. 9 session on transmission planning. “But five years ago we had no idea that shale gas would transform the generation fleet.”

And with new Environmental Protection Agency regulations set to impact coal-fueled power plants, the FERC member added, there won’t much time to account for plant closings and modifications in transmission planning.

“At least in our part of the country … changes are going to have to be made immediately,” agreed William Ball, Southern Co. executive vice president and chief transmission officer. “I don’t have years; I have months.”

Despite the time constraints, planners need to stop being so reactive, suggested Ed Tatum, vice president of regional transmission organizations and regulatory affairs at Glen Allen, Va.-based Old Dominion Electric Cooperative.

The changes cited by Moeller provide an excellent example of why it is important to consider various future outcomes during the planning process, he noted.

Tatum specified that “the basic building blocks” of a more proactive approach include FERC’s Order 1000, which requires greater regional and interregional planning coordination, and Department of Energy-funded planning processes in the three U.S. interconnections.

The eastern interconnection planning process in which Old Dominion is participating has been “an excellent starting point,” Tatum said. Participants are conducting transmission studies on three future scenarios selected by the Stakeholder Steering Committee, he indicated, terming analysis of distinct, uncertain futures “a valuable and essential exercise under today’s planning regime.”

“If you see a line that works under various scenarios,” he said, “that’s the one you want to do.”

According to Tatum, DOE-required triennial transmission congestion studies could be helpful, representing “a good source of information, a good tool.”

“Yes, we need to keep the lights on,” the Old Dominion representative emphasized. “But it’s not too soon to be planning in a different way.”

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