Electric Co-op Today

Energy experts expect energy efficiency and demand response programs to reduce the growth in U.S. electricity consumption by up to 15 percent by 2020 compared to what it would be without these measures, according to a survey by the Brattle Group.

Energy efficiency and demand response efforts will slow the growth in electricity consumption, a recent survey indicated. (Photo By: DNY59)

However, each survey respondent’s baseline for the future “in net, is assumed to include growth in overall electricity consumption,” noted Brattle, a private consulting firm that has issued numerous reports supporting demand response and dynamic pricing.

The report, Energy Efficiency and Demand Response in 2020—A Survey of Expert Opinion, attributed the expected declines to factors such as rising fuel and capital costs for electricity and natural gas, rapid advances in appliance and building technology, and innovative rate design.

It also credited “cultural shifts in American values that encourage behavioral change.”

Brattle suggested that variations in expected energy savings would vary by region. The Northeast and West are expected to register savings in the range of 5 percent to 16 percent, while the Southern and Central regions are expected to see maximum savings of 7 percent.

Differences also were anticipated by sector, with savings in the residential sector expected in the range of 10 percent to 12 percent by 2020, and those in the commercial and industrial sectors anticipated in the 5 percent to 15 percent range.

The survey identified “a new wave” of integrated demand side management programs that inform consumers about their comparative spending on energy and help them establish targets for optimizing energy use.

By 2020, it said, as many as 15 percent of residential consumers could be subject to direct load control. Even more — up to 20 percent — could be engaged with dynamic pricing, which changes with such factors as level of demand, type of customer, or weather.

The iDSM wave is not confined to the residential sector, Brattle added.

“The surveyed experts anticipate that demand response will become a valuable resource, with much higher participation rates than today, to manage peak demand,” it reported.

Electric co-ops are actively engaged in demand response, owning nearly a quarter of U.S. residential peak load management capacity and accounting for 20 percent of actual peak reductions.

Tags: Demand-Side Management, Energy Efficiency, Trends Reports and Analyses