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The electric power industry has prepared adequate plans to ensure bulk power system reliability over the next 10 years, the system watchdog reported.

Transmission and other system elements will remain reliable during the next decade, the bulk power watchdog said, although challenges exist. (Photo By: LucaBertolli)

However, many issues may affect implementation, said the North American Electric Reliability Corp. “Like all plans, there are a number of challenges during this time frame,” said Mark Lauby, director of NERC’s reliability assessment and performance analysis division.

According to the watchdog’s 2010 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, released at the GridWeek Conference, Oct. 20, major developments during the next decade will include:

• Decreased demand projections and higher overall reserve margins, a result of the economic recession and of advanced demand-side management. The study forecast U.S. summer peak demand for 2018 to be 4.1 percent lower than last year’s projection. Compared with the pre-recession 2008 forecast, peak demand for 2017 is 7.8 percent lower. NERC projected U.S. demand-side management to account for about 40,000 MW, or 4 percent, of the peaking resource portfolio.

• An “unprecedented,” continuing change in the generation fuel mix. The bulk power system is integrating a significant amount of new variable resources, NERC noted. However, by 2019, fossil-fueled, nuclear and hydro generation is projected to provide more than 90 percent of capacity needed to meet peak demand. The study projects that natural gas will provide 30 percent of capacity, up from today’s 29 percent, and coal 26 percent, down from today’s 31 percent.

• Bulk power transmission development is expected to strengthen the bulk power system as well as integrate high levels of projected variable generation. For the 10-year period, NERC forecast the addition of about 39,000 circuit miles of new high-voltage transmission, with 27,000 miles of this amount already under construction or planned.

• Cross-industry communications and coordination, which NERC termed “key to successful planning and meeting the operational needs of the future.”

“The electric industry is anticipating a wide variety of both demand-side management and generation resources to reliably supply projected peak demand,” NERC noted.

However, the watchdog said, “like all plans, these options are not without risk. It is up to industry, policymakers and regulators to thoroughly understand and manage these risks to ensure bulk power system reliability.”

Related Content: ECT GridWeek coverage

Tags: Electric Grid, GridWeek Conference, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Trends Reports and Analyses