Trends, Reports & Analyses
EIA: Slow Growth in Electricity Use
The nation’s total electricity consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent through 2035, the Energy Information Administration reported.
Coal-based power plants will continue to generate the largest share of U.S. electricity, a new report forecasts. (Photo By: ngkaki)
Electricity use will increase from 3,879 billion kilowatt-hours in 2010 to 4,775 kWh—more than 20 percent—at the end of the forecast period, the Department of Energy’s statistical unit said in its Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Overview.
The average annual increase is similar to that contained in EIA’s year-earlier report.
Meanwhile, electricity prices for consumers are expected to fall from 9.8 cents per kWh in 2010 to 9.5 cents per kWh in 2035, EIA said.
The overview, released Jan. 23, is based on the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the forecast period. The agency termed it “a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules or regulations or potential technology breakthroughs.”
While coal will remain the dominant fuel for electricity production, EIA said, its share of total generation will decline from 45 percent in 2010 to 39 percent in 2035. Total U.S. coal-based generating capacity will fall from 318 gigawatts to 301 gigawatts over the forecast period.
Meanwhile, the use of natural gas in power plants will grow from a 24 percent share to 27 percent (an increase of 129 GW) during the same period.
According to EIA, nuclear power’s share of U.S. electric generation will decline from 2010’s 20 percent (101 GW) to 18 percent in 2035 (112 GW).
The DOE agency forecast that increased generation from renewable energy, excluding hydropower, will account for one-third of the overall growth in electricity production during the 2010-2035 timeframe. Conventional hydro’s share of the generation total will grow from 10 percent in 2010 to 16 percent in 2035, it added.
EIA noted that both energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions fell during the recent economic recession.
Primary energy consumption will not surpass its pre-recession peak until early in the next decade, it reported. And due to the shift toward less carbon-intensive fuels, the carbon dioxide emissions associated with this consumption are not projected to exceed their 2007 peak by 2035.
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