Electric Co-op Today

CLEVELAND—Plug-in electric vehicles are moving out of the showrooms and onto the roads in increasing numbers. But automotive industry watchers remain unsure about a time frame for their broad acceptance by consumers.

Auto manufacturers are still pushing for curb appeal for their growing fleet of electric vehicles. (ECT File Photo By: Michael W. Kahn)

“They are just reaching the market. We don’t know what the technology is going to be,” said Brett Smith, assistant research director for the Center for Automotive Research. The nonprofit research organization studies trends in the automotive industry and public policy. In June, CAR released a research report titled “The U.S. Automotive Market and Industry in 2025.”

Speaking at the 2011 CRN Summit in Cleveland, July 20, Smith said that brand competition and divergent technologies are fueling uncertainty about the direction and product mix likely to dominate the automotive market.

“The business model is still a long way from working,” said Smith. “Hybrids are about 3 percent of the market after almost 15 years.”

According to Smith, battery-electric vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles and other new entries, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, are all competing for shares of a limited market. Their appeal, primarily, is to technology wonks, environmentally sensitive consumers or those who want the vehicles as status symbols.

“There are absolutely too many technologies out there right now,” said Smith, warning that a shakeout is all but inevitable. “Car companies don’t have the resources to do it all.”

Even though consumers consider personal vehicles as necessary long term investments, the payback for these vehicles is still a barrier, said Smith. He cited market research claiming electric vehicle consumers would need 17 years to recoup their costs, making it unlikely many will abandon fossil fuel vehicles for the emerging alternatives quickly.

“The expectations don’t match up to the corporate relations hype,” said Smith.

Batteries still remain the ultimate challenge and a workable solution remains more than a decade away. There are also challenges to be worked out in the fast charging technology needed to extend the range of electric vehicles, a major barrier to consumer acceptance.

“This is something you really should be planning for. I don’t think you can afford to sit it out,” said Smith, urging co-ops to remain engaged in infrastructure development and maintain communications with automotive manufacturers.

“Putting in a couple of hundred public charging stations over the next few years is probably not that important,” said Smith. “But it is important to be able to respond to developments that could occur during that time period.”

Related content: 2011 CRN Summit

Tags: 2011 CRN Summit, Electric Vehicles